bodner088

As some of the more advanced members of our growing Braintenance crowd might have guessed based upon enhanced telepathic powers (or by having read the title), this is indeed a post on probability and uncertainty , and on chaos and complexity . All of these are nouns representing ideas or theories based upon observed behaviors, and upon the inherent limitations of observations . Probability is the likelihood of a given outcome based upon observed experience over an expanse of time. We know that the likelihood or probability of a coin landing with the 'heads' side up is .50 or 50%. And we also know that each toss of a coin is an independent event . Despite this statistical logic, if we toss ten coins and they all turn up 'heads' -- we start to develop an " experiential probability bias ," and we start to think (despite ourselves, and despite what we know to be the truth) that the next coin toss is more than 50% likely to result in a 'tails' outcome...

As some of the more advanced members of our growing Braintenance crowd might have guessed based upon enhanced telepathic powers (or by having read the title), this is indeed a post on probability and uncertainty , and on chaos and complexity . All of these are nouns representing ideas or theories based upon observed behaviors, and upon the inherent limitations of observations . When we speak of randomness and probability we generally mean two different things. Essentially, probability is the mathematically determined likelihood (expressed as a decimal, a fraction, a percentage or odds) that an event or an outcome will occur, given parameters. For example, when we toss a coin, the odds are (stop yawning!) 50% that it will land on heads and 50% that it will land on tails. This probability is based upon repeated trials over time. There are two standards -- 1) repeated trials (doing the exercise and observing the result as many times as possible to gain more certainty as to the pro...